Market Commentary

After Strong 1Q, Can the Rest of 2018 Follow Suit?

Posted on May 16, 2018

First-quarter earnings season is largely wrapped up and it got steadily stronger from beginning to end. The story for the rest of the year appears to be less optimistic for a number of Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 sectors, and this looks to be weighing on share prices.

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First-quarter earnings season is largely wrapped up and it got steadily stronger from beginning to end. The story for the rest of the year appears to be less optimistic for a number of Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 sectors, and this looks to be weighing on share prices.

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Don’t Worry Too Much About Flatter Yield Curve

Posted on May 09, 2018

The current Treasury yield curve is much flatter than it was a year ago, or even three months ago. How concerned about this should we be? In our view, investors may want to be watchful, though perhaps not overly worried.

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The current Treasury yield curve is much flatter than it was a year ago, or even three months ago. How concerned about this should we be? In our view, investors may want to be watchful, though perhaps not overly worried.

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Commodities on Upswing but Subject to Volatility

Posted on May 02, 2018

Key industrial commodities – including oil, natural gas, copper and gold – have seen a fair bit of price fluctuation so far in 2018. We believe that volatility could continue for these resources as well as for the share prices of companies that produce them.

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Key industrial commodities – including oil, natural gas, copper and gold – have seen a fair bit of price fluctuation so far in 2018. We believe that volatility could continue for these resources as well as for the share prices of companies that produce them.

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Strong 1st Quarter Earnings Are Not Lifting Stocks

Posted on Apr 25, 2018

About a fifth of the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 have reported first-quarter (1Q) earnings so far and the optimism remains strong. If anything, it’s getting stronger based on growth expectations that keep rising ever higher as more companies report their results.

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About a fifth of the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 have reported first-quarter (1Q) earnings so far and the optimism remains strong. If anything, it’s getting stronger based on growth expectations that keep rising ever higher as more companies report their results.

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Late-Cycle Signs Are No Reason for Investor Panic

Posted on Apr 18, 2018

It appears that investor confidence is back. Over the past couple of weeks, the Standard & Poor’s 500 has gained nearly 5 percent, driven by better-than-expected corporate profit growth for the first quarter. As of Tuesday’s close, the S&P was back in positive territory year to date.

 

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It appears that investor confidence is back. Over the past couple of weeks, the Standard & Poor’s 500 has gained nearly 5 percent, driven by better-than-expected corporate profit growth for the first quarter. As of Tuesday’s close, the S&P was back in positive territory year to date.

 

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First Quarter Review and Investment Outlook

Posted on Apr 03, 2018

Markets began 2018 as a continuation of 2017, only better. Buoyed by strong earnings growth and December’s federal tax cuts, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 had shot up more than 7 percent by late January. Record highs were set 14 times in the first 18 trading days of the year. Investor optimism seemed to know no bounds.

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Markets began 2018 as a continuation of 2017, only better. Buoyed by strong earnings growth and December’s federal tax cuts, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 had shot up more than 7 percent by late January. Record highs were set 14 times in the first 18 trading days of the year. Investor optimism seemed to know no bounds.

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Trade War Fears Likely to Spur More Volatility

Posted on Mar 28, 2018

Not a single day in 2017 was the daily trading range for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index greater than 2%. We’re not even out of the first quarter of 2018, and we’ve already had nine such days, including the last four through Tuesday.

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Not a single day in 2017 was the daily trading range for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index greater than 2%. We’re not even out of the first quarter of 2018, and we’ve already had nine such days, including the last four through Tuesday.

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Expect More Volatility as Fed Policy Plays Out

Posted on Mar 21, 2018

The Federal Reserve’s March meeting is now behind us — interest rates will likely be heading higher over the next nine months, though no one yet knows just how high they’ll go. For both stock and bond investors, uncertainty about rates has been contributing to the recent upswing in volatility.

 

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The Federal Reserve’s March meeting is now behind us — interest rates will likely be heading higher over the next nine months, though no one yet knows just how high they’ll go. For both stock and bond investors, uncertainty about rates has been contributing to the recent upswing in volatility.

 

Read this story in full

Inflation Report and Looming Rise in Labor Productivity Appear Positive for the Bull Market

Posted on Mar 14, 2018

News items come and go. Yesterday the naming of a new U.S. secretary of state made headlines. Tomorrow it’ll be something new. Most news doesn’t make a lasting impact on the stock market. In contrast, inflation matters. That’s because the stock market is counting on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates gradually, not rapidly.

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News items come and go. Yesterday the naming of a new U.S. secretary of state made headlines. Tomorrow it’ll be something new. Most news doesn’t make a lasting impact on the stock market. In contrast, inflation matters. That’s because the stock market is counting on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates gradually, not rapidly.

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Tariffs Could Turn Target Toward U.S. Goods

Posted on Mar 07, 2018

We may have seen the first casualty of a brewing trade war – the top White House economic advisor, Gary Cohn, said he’ll be quitting the post. Cohn fought hard against the tariffs on industrial metal imports that President Trump announced last week.

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We may have seen the first casualty of a brewing trade war – the top White House economic advisor, Gary Cohn, said he’ll be quitting the post. Cohn fought hard against the tariffs on industrial metal imports that President Trump announced last week.

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