Market Commentary

2018 USAA Midyear Update

Posted on Jun 20, 2018

After the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate hike in mid-June, Chairman Jerome Powell boiled the U.S. macro environment down to a mere dozen words: “Growth is strong. Labor markets are strong. Inflation is close to target.”

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After the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate hike in mid-June, Chairman Jerome Powell boiled the U.S. macro environment down to a mere dozen words: “Growth is strong. Labor markets are strong. Inflation is close to target.”

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Fed Rate Hike Offsetting Positive Effects of Tax Cuts

Posted on Jun 15, 2018

The Federal Open Market Committee did what was expected of them this week. They raised the federal funds rate to a level the markets have already priced into their calculations for the last two months. Taking the rate up 25 basis points to 1.75 percent completes a seven-hike cycle that began in December 2015.

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The Federal Open Market Committee did what was expected of them this week. They raised the federal funds rate to a level the markets have already priced into their calculations for the last two months. Taking the rate up 25 basis points to 1.75 percent completes a seven-hike cycle that began in December 2015.

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Top-Performing Tech Has Room to Rise

Posted on Jun 06, 2018

Even as other major U.S. stock indexes struggle for traction in 2018, the Nasdaq Composite’s total return is up by double digits year to date. This week, the technology-led index reached a new all-time high on Monday – its first since early March – and then it beat that mark on Tuesday.

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Even as other major U.S. stock indexes struggle for traction in 2018, the Nasdaq Composite’s total return is up by double digits year to date. This week, the technology-led index reached a new all-time high on Monday – its first since early March – and then it beat that mark on Tuesday.

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Geopolitical Jitters Behind Bond Rally

Posted on May 30, 2018

Fears about Italy’s political turmoil and the euro’s future spread around the world this week, with investors quickly shifting into risk-off mode. The flight to safety knocked down U.S. stocks and drove up bond prices.

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Fears about Italy’s political turmoil and the euro’s future spread around the world this week, with investors quickly shifting into risk-off mode. The flight to safety knocked down U.S. stocks and drove up bond prices.

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After Strong 1Q, Can the Rest of 2018 Follow Suit?

Posted on May 16, 2018

First-quarter earnings season is largely wrapped up and it got steadily stronger from beginning to end. The story for the rest of the year appears to be less optimistic for a number of Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 sectors, and this looks to be weighing on share prices.

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First-quarter earnings season is largely wrapped up and it got steadily stronger from beginning to end. The story for the rest of the year appears to be less optimistic for a number of Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 sectors, and this looks to be weighing on share prices.

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Don’t Worry Too Much About Flatter Yield Curve

Posted on May 09, 2018

The current Treasury yield curve is much flatter than it was a year ago, or even three months ago. How concerned about this should we be? In our view, investors may want to be watchful, though perhaps not overly worried.

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The current Treasury yield curve is much flatter than it was a year ago, or even three months ago. How concerned about this should we be? In our view, investors may want to be watchful, though perhaps not overly worried.

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Commodities on Upswing but Subject to Volatility

Posted on May 02, 2018

Key industrial commodities – including oil, natural gas, copper and gold – have seen a fair bit of price fluctuation so far in 2018. We believe that volatility could continue for these resources as well as for the share prices of companies that produce them.

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Key industrial commodities – including oil, natural gas, copper and gold – have seen a fair bit of price fluctuation so far in 2018. We believe that volatility could continue for these resources as well as for the share prices of companies that produce them.

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Strong 1st Quarter Earnings Are Not Lifting Stocks

Posted on Apr 25, 2018

About a fifth of the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 have reported first-quarter (1Q) earnings so far and the optimism remains strong. If anything, it’s getting stronger based on growth expectations that keep rising ever higher as more companies report their results.

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About a fifth of the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 have reported first-quarter (1Q) earnings so far and the optimism remains strong. If anything, it’s getting stronger based on growth expectations that keep rising ever higher as more companies report their results.

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Late-Cycle Signs Are No Reason for Investor Panic

Posted on Apr 18, 2018

It appears that investor confidence is back. Over the past couple of weeks, the Standard & Poor’s 500 has gained nearly 5 percent, driven by better-than-expected corporate profit growth for the first quarter. As of Tuesday’s close, the S&P was back in positive territory year to date.

 

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It appears that investor confidence is back. Over the past couple of weeks, the Standard & Poor’s 500 has gained nearly 5 percent, driven by better-than-expected corporate profit growth for the first quarter. As of Tuesday’s close, the S&P was back in positive territory year to date.

 

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First Quarter Review and Investment Outlook

Posted on Apr 03, 2018

Markets began 2018 as a continuation of 2017, only better. Buoyed by strong earnings growth and December’s federal tax cuts, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 had shot up more than 7 percent by late January. Record highs were set 14 times in the first 18 trading days of the year. Investor optimism seemed to know no bounds.

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Markets began 2018 as a continuation of 2017, only better. Buoyed by strong earnings growth and December’s federal tax cuts, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 had shot up more than 7 percent by late January. Record highs were set 14 times in the first 18 trading days of the year. Investor optimism seemed to know no bounds.

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