Reconnaissance

Welcome to Reconnaissance, USAA’s new blog for investment professionals. We encourage you to sign up to receive key insights from our investment team on a range of important themes: Global macro conditions, asset class performance, actionable trends and more.

Flatter Treasury curve adds to muni appeal

Posted on Jul 20, 2018

Heavy demand for 10-year and 30-year Treasuries is keeping a lid on yields at the long end of the curve while Fed rate hikes are pushing up yields on shorter maturities. This trend is making longer-dated, tax-exempt munis more attractive as investments.

Read this story in full

Heavy demand for 10-year and 30-year Treasuries is keeping a lid on yields at the long end of the curve while Fed rate hikes are pushing up yields on shorter maturities. This trend is making longer-dated, tax-exempt munis more attractive as investments.

Read this story in full

What is the yield curve telling us?

Posted on Jul 11, 2018

As the Treasury yield curve gets flatter, the chatter about a possible inversion gets louder. That in turn adds to worries that a recession could be coming. This week, the 2/10 spread for Treasuries narrowed to 28 basis points, the tightest since 2007. What might this mean for the Fed and rates?

Read this story in full

As the Treasury yield curve gets flatter, the chatter about a possible inversion gets louder. That in turn adds to worries that a recession could be coming. This week, the 2/10 spread for Treasuries narrowed to 28 basis points, the tightest since 2007. What might this mean for the Fed and rates?

Read this story in full

QUICK Q&A: Global Small Caps

Posted on May 24, 2018

A subadvisor to the USAA International Fund (USIFX) believes now may be a good time for non-U.S. small-cap stocks. Compared to the Russell 2000, they say, global small cap stocks carry a significant multiple discount and are no more expensive than they were in 2014.

Read this story in full

A subadvisor to the USAA International Fund (USIFX) believes now may be a good time for non-U.S. small-cap stocks. Compared to the Russell 2000, they say, global small cap stocks carry a significant multiple discount and are no more expensive than they were in 2014.

Read this story in full

Oil price run-up is more than Iran deal

Posted on May 09, 2018

The run-up to the White House’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal has been a strong near-term driver for oil prices, with West Texas crude this week trading over $70 a barrel. But Iran is not the only factor – strengthening fundamentals are also contributing to higher prices.

Read this story in full

The run-up to the White House’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal has been a strong near-term driver for oil prices, with West Texas crude this week trading over $70 a barrel. But Iran is not the only factor – strengthening fundamentals are also contributing to higher prices.

Read this story in full

A view on commodity price volatility

Posted on May 01, 2018

Prices of oil, gold and other natural resources have been volatile so far in 2018, and with so many wild cards in the deck (trade troubles, inflation, a stronger dollar and more), we expect that turbulence to continue.

Read this story in full

Prices of oil, gold and other natural resources have been volatile so far in 2018, and with so many wild cards in the deck (trade troubles, inflation, a stronger dollar and more), we expect that turbulence to continue.

Read this story in full

Central banks are getting stingy

Posted on Apr 24, 2018

After nearly a decade of ultra-loose monetary conditions, the major Western central banks are tightening up the purse strings. Cheap money has been a key driver of stocks, so the combination of rich valuations and faster rate hikes presents some risks.

Read this story in full

After nearly a decade of ultra-loose monetary conditions, the major Western central banks are tightening up the purse strings. Cheap money has been a key driver of stocks, so the combination of rich valuations and faster rate hikes presents some risks.

Read this story in full

Less risk, more return in short-term bonds

Posted on Apr 10, 2018

Rising interest rates are making bonds more attractive relative to stocks, particularly at the short end of the curve where rates have gone up the most and bond prices are less exposed to rising rates. For the first time in nearly a decade, investors can reduce portfolio risk without sacrificing income.

Read this story in full

Rising interest rates are making bonds more attractive relative to stocks, particularly at the short end of the curve where rates have gone up the most and bond prices are less exposed to rising rates. For the first time in nearly a decade, investors can reduce portfolio risk without sacrificing income.

Read this story in full

QUICK Q&A: International Value

Posted on Mar 09, 2018

A sub-advisor to the USAA International Fund (USIFX) offers its thoughts on the opportunities that come with higher volatility, which sectors it currently likes and doesn't like, and how it executes on its contrarian value approach.

Read this story in full

A sub-advisor to the USAA International Fund (USIFX) offers its thoughts on the opportunities that come with higher volatility, which sectors it currently likes and doesn't like, and how it executes on its contrarian value approach.

Read this story in full

The Numbers Don’t Support Steel Tariffs

Posted on Mar 02, 2018

History shows that tariffs and trade wars tend to inflict pain on all parties involved – in that sense, they are neither good nor yield quick victories. The most obvious economic risk is to the current synchronized global growth trend that has been supporting U.S. and overseas equity markets.

Read this story in full

History shows that tariffs and trade wars tend to inflict pain on all parties involved – in that sense, they are neither good nor yield quick victories. The most obvious economic risk is to the current synchronized global growth trend that has been supporting U.S. and overseas equity markets.

Read this story in full

Equity Insights: Tech, Financials, Energy

Posted on Feb 27, 2018

All three sectors started strong in 2018, but during the recent market drop, tech and financials matched the index but energy fell farther. This month's bounce-back is also favoring tech and financials, while energy continues to languish even as oil prices have climbed.

Read this story in full

All three sectors started strong in 2018, but during the recent market drop, tech and financials matched the index but energy fell farther. This month's bounce-back is also favoring tech and financials, while energy continues to languish even as oil prices have climbed.

Read this story in full